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Friday, May 08, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2020 08:16:00 PM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 30% Q2 decline is around 7% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect a 30% qoq saar plunge in 2Q. [SAAR May 8 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -31.2% for 2020:Q2. [May 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -34.9 percent on May 8, down from -17.6 percent on May 5. [May 8 estimate]