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Friday, May 01, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2020 12:26:00 PM

The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data and aren't capturing the entire collapse in the economy.  These models will catch up as more data is released.  All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and other forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline.

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect a 30% qoq saar decline in 2Q. Following the 1Q GDP report, our forecast for annual GDP growth this year was adjusted to -5.6%. [SAAR May 1 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -9.3% for 2020:Q2. [May 1 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -16.1 percent on May 1, down from -12.1 percent on April 30. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. [May 1 estimate]