Thursday, May 28, 2020

Q1 GDP Revised Down to -5.0% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2020 08:44:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 4.8 percent. With the second estimate, a downward revision to private inventory investment was partly offset by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment.
emphasis added
Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up to -6.8% from -7.6%. Residential investment was revised down from 21.0% to 18.5%. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.