Monday, May 18, 2020

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2020 11:45:00 AM

With the ten year yield at 0.70%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 2.8%.

Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30 year fixed rate is now at 3.10% for top tier scenarios. So mortgage rates are a little high compared to the normal relationship.

The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.

Mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury YieldCurrently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 0.70%, and 30 year mortgage rates were at 3.28% according to the Freddie Mac survey last week - higher than expected.

The record low in the Freddie Mac survey was 3.23% in April 2020 (Survey started in 1971).

Freddie Mac has a similar graph here with a linear fit (using data since 1990).   Using their formula, 30 year rates would be around 2.6%.