Wednesday, May 13, 2020

May 13 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Possible Errors Cloud Data

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2020 05:19:00 PM

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. These people are doing amazing work. However, @alexismadrigal at the project has noticed a possible error. Alexis wrote yesterday:

We're aware of at least one state including [antibody tests], and this has led us to a broader investigation of which states might have lumped these tests in without telling anyone.
If antibody tests were included, then the reported test count is too high - and the reported percent too low.

The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day sometime in May according to Dr. Fauci - and that might be enough for test and trace.

However, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day according to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute.

There were 336,392 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.4% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to keep  the percentage positive well below 5%. (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).

Hopefully the possible data issue will be clarified soon.