Thursday, April 16, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 5,245,000

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2020 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 5,245,000, a decrease of 1,370,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 6,606,000 to 6,615,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,508,500, an increase of 1,240,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,250 from 4,265,500 to 4,267,750.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 5,508,500.

This was lower than the consensus forecast.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week while increasing sharply).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims have already increased to a new record high of 11,976,000 (SA) and will increase further over the next few weeks - and likely stay at that high level until the crisis abates.