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Friday, April 10, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2020 11:48:00 AM

Note: The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data and aren't capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2nd half of March. All forecasts, including the Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs forecasts, are for the seasonally adjust annual rate (SAAR) of decline.

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to expect a 7% decline in 1Q [SAAR Apr 10 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP forecast unchanged at -9.0% (qoq ar). However, we continue to expect the advance reading on April 29th to register a smaller decline of -6.5%, reflecting incomplete source data and non-response bias. [Apr 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 and -0.4% for 2020:Q2. [Apr 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 1.0 percent on April 9, down from 1.3 percent on April 2. … There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. [Apr 9 estimate]
CR Note: These estimate suggest GDP declined around 7% in Q1.