Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Decreased in 34 states in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2020 11:37:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2020. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 29, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of -22. In the past month, the indexes increased in 12 states, decreased in 34 states, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of -44.
emphasis added
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the great recession, and all or mostly green during most of the recent expansion.

The map is mostly red on a three month basis, and will turn red everywhere soon.

Note: The BLS reported some issues with some state Unemployment data for March, and that is probably why some states are still green (and this 3 month change).

Source: Philly Fed.

Note: For complaints about red / green issues, please contact the Philly Fed.

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityAnd here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 14 states had increasing activity including states with minor increases.  (The few positive states are probably due to the issues the BLS has identified - all states will see declining activity in April).