Thursday, April 02, 2020

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2020 04:45:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls declined 180k in March, below consensus of -100k.
...
We estimate the unemployment rate rose three tenths to 3.8%, with risks skewed towards a larger increase (consensus 3.8%).

While we look for a weaker-than-consensus report tomorrow, the March employment numbers are already fairly stale and insignificant in our view, because the April report will likely show job losses in the millions.
emphasis added