Sunday, April 12, 2020

Four High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2020 11:48:00 AM

These indicators are for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will probably recover very slowly.

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

TSA Traveler Data Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).

On April 11th there were 93,645 travelers compared to 2,059,142 a year ago.

That is a decline of over 95%.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

Move Box OfficeThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:

This data is updated through April 11, 2020.

The US was off 100% YoY as of March 21st, although NYC, LA, Chicago, Seattle and San Francisco were all off 100% as of March 17th.

Dining in Seattle and San Francisco declined sharply a week or two ahead of most of the country - and acting early has been shown to minimize the spread of the virus.

As the recovery begins in some areas, I'll include the cities that open first.

Move Box OfficeThis data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo.

Note that the data is noisy and depends on when blockbusters are released.

This data is through the week ending April 9, 2020.  Movie ticket sales have been essentially at zero for three weeks.

Basically movie theaters are closed all across the country, and will probably reopen slowly (probably with limited seating at first).

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateThe red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 has crushed hotel occupancy.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

STR reported hotel occupancy was off 68.5% year-over-year last week, declining to an occupancy rate of 21.6%. This is the lowest weekly occupancy rate on record, even considering seasonality.