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Wednesday, April 29, 2020

BEA: Real GDP decreased at 4.8% Annualized Rate in Q1

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2020 08:37:00 AM

Note: This is the advance release. Most analysts expect downward revisions as more data become available.

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services, led by health care, and goods, led by motor vehicles and parts. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment, led by transportation equipment. The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in services, led by travel.
emphasis added
The advance Q1 GDP report, at minus 4.8% annualized, was close to expectations.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased at 7.6% annualized rate in Q1, down from 1.8% increase in Q4.  Residential investment (RI) increased at a 21.0% rate in Q1. Equipment investment decreased at a 15.2% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 9.7% pace.

I'll have more later ...