Tuesday, April 28, 2020

April 28 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Anonymous Exposure Notification coming Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2020 05:05:00 PM

From CNBC: How a handful of Apple and Google employees came together to help health officials trace coronavirus

The software, which Apple and Google now refer to by the softer-sounding term “exposure notification” instead of “contact tracing,” is due to be released on May 1.

A group of researchers from Oxford University had already seen promising results in an early study: “Our models show we can stop the epidemic if approximately 60% of the population use the app, and even with lower numbers of app users, we still estimate a reduction in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths,” noted Christophe Fraser, senior author of the latest report from Oxford University’s Nuffield Department of Medicine.
This technology, combined with expanded testing, could drastically slow the pandemic.

The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day in several weeks according to Dr. Fauci - and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace.

There were 202,233 test results reported over the last 24 hours (the number of tests yesterday were revised up).

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.1% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push  the percentage positive below 5%. (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).