Monday, April 27, 2020

April 27 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Disappointing

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2020 04:58:00 PM

Disappointing, but might be weekend related.

From The Hill: Fauci confident US will double coronavirus testing capacity over next several weeks

Fauci said in a webcast hosted by the National Academy of Sciences that that the U.S. is currently averaging between 1.5 million and 2 million tests per week.

"We probably should get up to twice that as we get into the next several weeks, and I think we will," Fauci said. "Testing is an important part of what we’re doing, but it is not the only part."

"You need enough tests so when you’re doing what we’re trying to do right now, which is trying to ease our way back, that you can very easily identify, test, contact trace and get those who are infected out of society so they don’t infect others," he said, adding that positive test results should account for less than 10 percent of tests administered.
Based on these comments, the US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day in several weeks - and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace.

There were 135,505 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16.2% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push  the percentage positive below 5%, although Dr. Fauci said below 10%  (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).