by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2020 11:28:00 AM

A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research:

The economy will flirt with recession in the coming months with negative GDP in 2Q, we believe. Growth is expected to remain soft in 3Q with recovery starting thereafter.
…
We now expect the Fed to cut 100bp at the March FOMC meeting, bringing rates to zero.
…
Based on BAC aggregated card data, we estimate that retail sales ex-autos contracted by 0.2% month-over-month (mom) seasonally adjusted in February. At first glance, it seems pretty good, all things considered. However, remember that the retail sales aggregate is not a comprehensive measure of consumer spending as it excludes most services with the exception of restaurants. Importantly, it does not include travel-related services which have declined meaningfully over February. On a monthly and seasonally adjusted basis, airline spending tumbled 11.2% mom, lodging down 9.1% mom and cruises down 18.6% mom in February.
emphasis added

Note that that data was for February. March will be much worse.

Goldman Sachs also expects the Fed to cut rates to zero:

We now expect the FOMC to cut the funds rate 100bp on March 18, a faster return to the crisis-era 0-0.25% rate than under our previous call for two 50bp steps in March and April.