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Monday, February 03, 2020

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2020 12:31:00 PM

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined sharply from the record highs in early 2018, and have increased a little lately.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through Jan 24, 2020 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Lumcber PricesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Right now Random Lengths prices are up 14% from a year ago, and CME futures are up 12% year-over-year.

There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

The trade war was a factor in the sharp decline with reports that lumber exports to China had declined by 40%.   Now, with a pickup in housing, lumber prices are moving up again.