Friday, February 28, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.6%

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2020 11:16:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data lifted 1Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 1.3% qoq saar. [Feb 28 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.1% (qoq ar), reflecting a larger expected drag from inventories. [Feb 27 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% for 2020:Q1. [Feb 28 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 28, down from 2.7 percent on February 27. [Feb 28 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.1% and 2.6% annualized in Q1.