Thursday, February 06, 2020

Goldman: January Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2020 03:27:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in January ... initial jobless claims declined further, ADP job gains were significantly larger than expected, and an unseasonably dry survey week in the Northeast and Ohio Valley is set to boost weather-sensitive categories. We also note that January job growth tends to accelerate in tight labor markets, as labor supply constraints may lead firms to implement fewer end-of-year layoffs. … We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.5%
emphasis added