Friday, January 17, 2020

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2020 02:18:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch

On balance retail sales cut our 4Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 2.0% qoq saar. [Jan 17 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 17 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent. [Jan 17 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.2% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.