Friday, January 10, 2020

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.3%

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2020 12:28:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch

We lowered 1Q GDP growth by 0.7pp to 1.0% to reflect a likely steeper drop in inventories. As a partial offset, we boosted 2Q GDP to 2.0%. 4Q19 is tracking 2.2%. [Jan 10 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.2% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 7 after rounding. [Jan 10 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.1% and 2.3% annualized in Q4.