Friday, January 31, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2020 11:47:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch

GDP growth is likely to slow to 1.0% qoq saar in 1Q 2020. [Jan 31 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 [Jan 31 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on January 31. [Jan 31 estimate]
CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.0% and 2.7% annualized in Q1.