Monday, January 13, 2020

Chicago Fed: Summary of 2019 Results and 2020 Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2020 02:53:00 PM

It is always interesting to see the consensus outlook. The Chicago Fed held an Economic Outlook Symposium in December with more than 140 economists and analysts, and they just published the 2020 Forecasts.   Note that the consensus always misses turning points, but I don't expect a recession in 2020 either.

The consensus is for real GDP to increase 1.7% Q4 over Q4 in 2020 (my view is GDP growth will be a little higher than the consensus).

The consensus is the unemployment rate will be at 3.7% in Q4 2020 (my view is the unemployment rate will be lower).

The consensus is that housing starts will increase slightly to 1.28 million in 2020 (my view is starts will be somewhat higher).

Unfortunately they didn't forecast employment growth - I expect employment growth to slow further in 2020.