Friday, December 20, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.3% to 2.1%

by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2019 02:31:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch

We continue to track 4Q GDP growth at 1.5%. [Dec 20 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Dec 20 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q4 and 1.6% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 20 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on December 20, down from 2.3 percent on December 17 [Dec 20 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.3% and 2.1% annualized in Q4.