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Friday, December 06, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2019 12:14:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

[W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar) [Dec 5 estimate]
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch
This week, our ... 4Q GDP tracking estimate edged down by 0.1pp to 1.6% on weaker than expected residential spend in Oct. [Dec 6 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.6% for 2019:Q4 and 0.7% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 6 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on December 6, up from 1.5 percent on December 5. [Dec 6 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.6% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.