Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2019 11:04:00 AM

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in November, down 0.5% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.2% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should be about flat from a year ago, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting this November’s lower business day count comparted to last November.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of November should be down by about 9.1% from a year earlier.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.8% from last November.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release November existing home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.45 million SAAR.