Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Industrial Production Increased in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2019 09:22:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production and manufacturing production both rebounded 1.1 percent in November after declining in October. These sharp November increases were largely due to a bounceback in the output of motor vehicles and parts following the end of a strike at a major manufacturer. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the indexes for total industrial production and for manufacturing moved up 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Mining production edged down 0.2 percent, while the output of utilities increased 2.9 percent.

At 109.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.8 percent lower in November than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.7 percentage point in November to 77.3 percent, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.6 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.3% is 2.5% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in November to  109.7. This is 26% above the recession low, and 4.1% above the pre-recession peak.

The change in industrial production and increase in capacity utilization were above consensus expectations.