by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2019 02:10:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

On the projections, growth was mostly unchanged, and unemployment and inflation were revised down slightly.

Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, Q2 at 2.0% and Q3 at 2.1%. Currently most analysts are projecting around 1% to 2% in Q4. So the GDP projections were little changed, although GDP for 2020 was revised up slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1	2019	2020	2021	2022
Dec 2019	2.1 to 2.2	2.0 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.0
Sept 2019	2.1 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0	NA

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.5% in November.  So the unemployment rate projection for Q4 2019 was revised down slightly.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2	2019	2020	2021	2022
Dec 2019	3.5 to 3.6	3.5 to 3.7	3.5 to 3.9	3.5 to 4.0
Sept 2019	3.6 to 3.7	3.6 to 3.8	3.6 to 3.9	NA

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October 2019, PCE inflation was up 1.3% from October 2018 So PCE inflation projections were revised down slightly.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1	2019	2020	2021	2022
Dec 2019	1.4 to 1.5	1.8 to 1.9	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2
Sept 2019	1.5 to 1.6	1.9 to 2.0	2.0	NA

PCE core inflation was up 1.6% in October year-over-year. So Core PCE inflation was revised down sligthly.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1	2019	2020	2021	2022
Dec 2019	1.6 to 1.7	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2
Sept 2019	1.7 to 1.8	1.9 to 2.0	2.0	NA