by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2019 02:10:00 PM
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
On the projections, growth was mostly unchanged, and unemployment and inflation were revised down slightly.
Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, Q2 at 2.0% and Q3 at 2.1%. Currently most analysts are projecting around 1% to 2% in Q4. So the GDP projections were little changed, although GDP for 2020 was revised up slightly.
|GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents|
|Dec 2019||2.1 to 2.2||2.0 to 2.2||1.8 to 2.0||1.8 to 2.0|
|Sept 2019||2.1 to 2.3||1.8 to 2.1||1.8 to 2.0||NA|
The unemployment rate was at 3.5% in November. So the unemployment rate projection for Q4 2019 was revised down slightly.
|Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents|
|Dec 2019||3.5 to 3.6||3.5 to 3.7||3.5 to 3.9||3.5 to 4.0|
|Sept 2019||3.6 to 3.7||3.6 to 3.8||3.6 to 3.9||NA|
As of October 2019, PCE inflation was up 1.3% from October 2018 So PCE inflation projections were revised down slightly.
|Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents|
|Dec 2019||1.4 to 1.5||1.8 to 1.9||2.0 to 2.1||2.0 to 2.2|
|Sept 2019||1.5 to 1.6||1.9 to 2.0||2.0||NA|
PCE core inflation was up 1.6% in October year-over-year. So Core PCE inflation was revised down sligthly.
|Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents|
|Dec 2019||1.6 to 1.7||1.9 to 2.0||2.0 to 2.1||2.0 to 2.2|
|Sept 2019||1.7 to 1.8||1.9 to 2.0||2.0||NA|