Monday, November 04, 2019

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in September compared to August

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2019 02:03:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: Stabilizing, not Swooning

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in August (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.1% in July. Annual growth in the smaller 10-city index was slightly slower than July, and was unchanged in the 20-city index.

September data as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to show continued modest deceleration in annual growth in the 10-city and U.S. National indices, while growth in the 20-city index is expected to remain the same. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, Nov. 26.
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.1% in September, down from 3.2% in August.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be unchanged at 2.0% YoY in September from 2.0% in August, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.4% YoY compared to 1.5% YoY in August.