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Saturday, November 30, 2019

Schedule for Week of December 1, 2019

by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2019 11:27:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit.

----- Monday, Dec 2nd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 49.2%, up from 48.3%.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 48.3% in October, the employment index was at 47.7%, and the new orders index was at 49.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

----- Tuesday, Dec 3rd -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 16.8 million SAAR in November, up from the BEA estimate of 16.6 million SAAR in October 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for October.

----- Wednesday, Dec 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 140,000 jobs added, up from 125,000 in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for a decrease to 54.5 from 54.7.

----- Thursday, Dec 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 213,000 last week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $49.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.5 billion in September.

----- Friday, Dec 6th -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

There were 148,000 jobs added in October. ex-Census (128,000 including Census jobs), and the unemployment rate was at 3.6%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October the year-over-year change was 2.093 million jobs.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.