Friday, November 22, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.4% to 1.9%

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2019 11:49:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Our 3Q tracking edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%. 4Q tracking remains at 1.5%. [Nov 22 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.9% (qoq ar). [Nov 21 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4. [Nov 22 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.4 percent on November 19, up from 0.3 percent on November 15. [Nov 19 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.4% and 1.9% annualized in Q4.