Thursday, November 21, 2019

Philly Fed Manufacturing shows "Overall Growth in November"

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2019 08:50:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indexes Suggest Overall Growth in November

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The indicator for general activity increased, but the new orders, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month. The survey’s future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months.

The diffusion index for current general activity rose 5 points this month to 10.4, after decreasing 6 points in October.
emphasis added
This was slightly above the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will probably be weak again in November - but might increase a little.