Monday, November 18, 2019

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November"

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2019 10:04:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 70 in November, down from 71 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.

“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn. “In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all builders surveyed have reported positive buyer traffic conditions.”

“We have seen substantial year-over-year improvement following the housing affordability crunch of late 2018, when the HMI stood at 60,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, lot shortages remain a serious problem, particularly among custom builders. Builders also continue to grapple with other affordability headwinds, including a lack of labor and regulatory constraints.”

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 76 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped one point to 53. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a two-point gain to 62, the West was up three points to 81 and the South moved one point higher to 74. The Midwest remained unchanged at 58.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was just below the consensus forecast.