Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2019 10:43:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Moves Higher in October

The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.9% in October to 152.6 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 142.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. October’s increase was due entirely to a recovery in institutional planning projects, which had stepped back over the previous few months. Institutional planning moved 22.8% higher in the month while commercial planning lost 0.5%.

Despite the October increase, institutional projects entering planning remain 4.3% lower on a year-over-year basis compared to October 2018. Commercial projects meanwhile are 14.3% higher than October 2018 as several mega projects have entered the early stages of planning over the last several months. The overall Momentum Index is 6.7% higher than a year ago, although its level remains below the July 2018 peak.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 152.6 in October, up from 142.7 in September.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  After declining late last year, this index moved mostly sideways in 2019, and has increased recently.