Friday, November 08, 2019

Early Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.1%

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2019 11:19:00 AM

From Goldman Sachs:

[O]ur Q4 GDP tracking estimate declined by one-tenth to +2.1% (qoq ar), and we increased our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q3 by one-tenth to +2.1% (qoq ar, compared to +1.9% as originally reported). [November 4 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4. News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point. [Nov 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.0 percent on November 5, down from 1.1 percent on November 1. [Nov 5 estimate]
CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.1% annualized in Q4.