Thursday, November 21, 2019

Comments on October Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2019 12:14:00 PM

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October

A few key points:

1) Existing home sales were up 4.6% year-over-year (YoY) in October.  This was the fourth consecutive YoY increase - following 16 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in sales

2) Inventory is still low, and was down 4.3% year-over-year (YoY) in October.

Existing Home Sales YoY Click on graph for larger image.

3) Year-to-date sales are down about 1.1% compared to the same period in 2018.   On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.28 million in 2019.  Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown.

The comparisons will be easier towards in November and December of this year, and with lower mortgage rates, sales will probably finish the year unchanged or even up from 2018.

Existing Home Sales NSAThe second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales NSA in October (463,000, red column) were above sales in October 2018 (446,000, NSA), and were the highest for October since 2006.

Overall this was a solid report.