Friday, October 04, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Just Under 2%

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2019 12:05:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

These data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.7% qoq saar. [Oct 3 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We also lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.9% (qoq ar). [Oct 3 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2019:Q3 and 1.3% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 4 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 4, unchanged from October 1. [Oct 4 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be just under 2.0% annualized in Q3.