Friday, October 11, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Under 2%

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2019 01:23:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Misses in construction spending and trade coupled with negative revisions to capex data sliced 0.3pp from 3Q GDP tracking this week, leaving us at 1.6% qoq saar. [Oct 11 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2019:Q3 and 1.3% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 11 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on October 9, down from 1.8 percent on October 4. [Oct 9 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be just under 2.0% annualized in Q3.