Wednesday, October 30, 2019

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 25, 2019.

... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 134 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“The 10-year Treasury rate rose slightly last week, as markets expected more progress toward a trade deal between the U.S. and China. Mortgage rates increased for the second straight week as a result, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing to 4.05 percent – the highest level since the end of July,” said Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage applications were mostly unchanged, with purchase activity rising 2 percent and refinances decreasing less than 1 percent. Purchase applications continued to run at a stronger pace than last year, finishing a robust 10 percent higher than a year ago. Considering how much lower rates are compared to the end of 2018, purchase applications should continue showing solid year-over-year gains.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.05 percent from 4.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance IndexClick on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With lower rates, we saw a sharp increase in refinance activity - but declined a little recently with higher rates.   Mortgage rates would have to decline further to see a huge refinance boom.

Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year.