Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Lawler: “Off-Calendar” Census Population Projection Update Coming; To Include Alternative Migration Scenarios

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2019 02:32:00 PM

CR Note: This is a technical "heads-up" for data nerds.

From housing economist Tom Lawler: “Off-Calendar” Census Population Projection Update Coming; To Include Alternative Migration Scenarios

According to a Census “Tip Sheet,” Census next week will be releasing several new and updated population reports. Here is the Census release:

“The U.S. Census Bureau will be releasing several new and updated population projection reports that cover projected life expectancy by nativity, projected population by alternative migration scenarios, and updated population projections by demographic characteristics. Supplemental data files for the alternative migration scenarios and input datasets for the main projections series will be released as well. For more information on past projection reports, go to www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html. (Tentatively scheduled for release Oct. 10.)”

As I have documented in earlier reports, the latest available “official” intermediate- and long-term population projections, released in early 2018, are out of date. They are based on dated population estimates, have unrealistic assumptions about deaths rates by age, and have projections about net international migration that at least in the short-to-intermediate term are probably too high. Hopefully these new estimates will incorporate updated population estimates (Vintage 2018) and more timely data on deaths than was the case in the latest projections. It will also be interesting to see Census’ population projections under alternative migration scenarios, given the highly uncertain outlook for immigration over the next few years.