Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in August compared to July

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2019 03:29:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: July Case-Shiller Results and August Forecast: Summer Turning Point?

Annual home price growth continued to cool in July, but more-recent data suggest the market may have begun to turn over the summer, showing modest acceleration in growth compared to earlier in the year.

The latest home sales and building data offer further proof that the recent bout of housing malaise may be nearing an end. August existing home sales, starts and permits all easily exceeded industry expectations and posted some of their strongest readings in years. This strength, teamed with steady home builder sentiment, growing home construction employment and still-low mortgage rates, show the housing market still has plenty of fight as summer turns to fall.
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.2% in August, unchanged from 3.2% in July.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 1.8% YoY in August from 2.0% in July, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.3% YoY compared to 1.6% YoY in July.