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Friday, September 06, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-high 1%

by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2019 11:36:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.9% (qoq ar). [Sept 5 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
[W]e lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to 1.9% (qoq ar).
. [Sept 4 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 6 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on September 4, down from 1.7 percent on September 3 [Sept 4 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% to 2.0% annualized in Q3.