Monday, September 23, 2019

NAHB: "55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter"

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2019 04:40:00 PM

This was released last month. This index is similar to the overall NAHB housing market index (HMI), but only released quarterly. The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low.

From the NAHB: 55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter

Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market remained solid in the second quarter with a reading of 71, edging down one point from the previous quarter due to softness in traffic of prospective buyers, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.
...
“Although the single-family HMI fell slightly, builder sentiment still remains strong for this segment of the market,” said Karen Schroeder, chair of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council and vice president of Mayberry Homes in East Lansing, Mich. “In fact, the reading of 71 is just one point off from the all-time high of 72 from the previous quarter. We expect the 55+ housing market to continue on a positive path moving forward.”

For the three index components of the 55+ single-family HMI, present sales remained even at 76, expected sales for the next six months increased one point to 78 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 56.
emphasis added
NAHB 55+ Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB 55+ Single Family HMI through Q2 2019.  Any reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than as  poor.  The index decreased to 71 in Q2 down from a record high 72 in Q1.

There are two key drivers in addition to the improved economy: 1) there is a large cohort that recently moved into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics are favorable for the 55+ market.