Thursday, September 26, 2019

Merrill on September Employment

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2019 02:23:00 PM

A few excerpt from a Merrill Lynch research report:

We expect next Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report to show that nonfarm payrolls grew by 145k in September following an increase of 130k in August. ... For private payrolls which exclude government workers, we look for an increase of 125k …

Since the last employment report, labor market indicators on balance have been reading softer and portend to tepid hiring activity. … Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7% for the 4th consecutive month
CR note: I expect temporary Decennial Census Hiring of about 15,000 in September (following 25,000 hires in August).