Wednesday, September 25, 2019

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 10.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 20, 2019.

... The Refinance Index decreased 15 percent from the previous week and was 104 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“U.S. Treasury yields trended downward over the course of last week, as the Federal Reserve meeting highlighted the elevated uncertainty in the economic outlook. However, despite falling yields, mortgage rates ticked up again and have risen 20 basis points over the past two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The increase in rates led to fewer refinances, and activity has now dropped 17 percent over the last two weeks.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications also decreased, likely related to the two-week jump in rates, but still remained 9 percent higher than last year. The recent data on increased existing-home sales and new residential construction points to the underlying strength in the purchase market this fall.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.02 percent from 4.01 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance IndexClick on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With lower rates, we saw a sharp increase in refinance activity.   Now activity has declined as rates have increased.

Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 9% year-over-year.