Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Industrial Production Increased in August

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2019 09:24:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in August after declining 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing production increased 0.5 percent, more than reversing its decrease in July. Factory output has increased 0.2 percent per month over the past four months after having decreased 0.5 percent per month during the first four months of the year. In August, the indexes for utilities and mining moved up 0.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.4 percent higher in August than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.4 percentage point in August to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.2 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.9% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in August to  109.9. This is 26% above the recession low, and 4.3% above the pre-recession peak.

The change in industrial production and increase in capacity utilization were above consensus expectations.