Thursday, September 05, 2019

Goldman: August Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2019 04:52:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. …

We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month—a tenth below consensus—and we expect the year-over-year rate to fall by two tenths to 3.0%.
emphasis added
CR Note: It will be important to adjust for decennial Census hiring. Ex-Census the Goldman forecast is for 130K to 135K jobs.