Wednesday, September 04, 2019

BLS: Employment Projections: 2018-2028

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2019 11:41:00 AM

The BLS released today their updated Labor Force projections through 2028.

Their projections show the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) declining to 61.2% in 2018 from the 63.0%.

Their projections also show that the Prime (25 to 54 year old) LFPR will decline slightly to 81.7% in 2028.

From the BLS: Employment Projections: 2018-2028 Summary

Employment is projected to grow by 8.4 million jobs to 169.4 million jobs over the 2018–28 decade, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. This expansion reflects an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent, which is slower than the 2008–18 annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. An aging population and labor force will contribute to changes expected over the coming decade including a continued decline in the labor force participation rate and continued growth in employment in healthcare and related industries and occupations.

The labor force is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.5 percent from 2018 to 2028. This growth represents an increase of 8.9 million over the decade to 171 million by 2028. The labor force participation rate is projected to decline to 61.2 percent.

Much of the projected decline in the overall labor force participation rate from 2018 to 2028 is due to a decrease in the participation rate for men, from 69.1 percent to 66.1 percent. However, the participation rate for women is also expected to decline over the decade, from 57.1 percent to 56.6 percent.
emphasis added
Labor Force Participation Rate ProjectionsClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the actual overall Labor Force Participation Rate (blue), and the updated BLS projections (Red). Note: these projections were drawn as a line - it is possible that the overall LFPR could move sideways for some time prior to declining to the lower rate in 2028.

In general, these projections are similar to my own projections for both the overall LFPR and the Prime LFPR.