Monday, September 09, 2019

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for July: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2019 08:11:00 AM

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for July today. According to Black Knight, 3.46% of mortgages were delinquent in July, down slightly from 3.61% in July 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.57% a year ago.

This gives a total of 3.95% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Servicer Retention Rates Improve Significantly Among Rate-Driven Refinance Transactions; Cash-Out Refi Retention Still Lackluster

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage performance, housing and public records datasets. This month’s report returned to the subject of servicer retention rates – the share of borrowers servicers retained through a refinance transaction. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, falling interest rates and a subsequent increase in rate/term refinances has worked in servicers’ favor.
This month’s analysis found that tappable equity – the amount of equity available to homeowners with mortgages before reaching a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio of 80% – rose for the second consecutive quarter. Gaining $335 billion in Q2 2019, tappable equity is now at an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. Approximately 45 million homeowners with mortgages have an average of $140,000 in tappable equity available to them. As mentioned above, falling 30-year rates have made cash-out refinances an affordable alternative to HELOCs as a way for these homeowners to tap equity. These falling rates have also opened up a relatively low-risk pool of potential borrowers with high credit scores. Nearly half of tappable equity holders have current first lien rates of 4.25%, while 76% have interest rates of 3.75% or higher, meaning they could potentially tap into home equity with little change to their existing 30-year rate, or perhaps even experience a slight improvement. More than half of this population has credit scores of 760 or above, making for a relatively low-risk market segment; another 16% have credit scores between 720-759.
emphasis added
BKFS Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the National delinquency rate over time.

From Black Knight:
• After June's calendar-driven spike, the national delinquency rate recovered strongly in July

• Delinquencies fell 7% from June, and are now down more than 4% from one year ago

• July 2019’s delinquency rate of 3.46% is the lowest for any July on record dating back to 2000

• The national delinquency rate is now more than 1% below the pre-recession average for the first time in 2019 after first crossing that threshold in late 2018
The second graph shows the Year-over-year change in Black Knight's House Price Index: BKFS
• The rate of a annual home price appreciation rose in July for the first time since February 2018

• Home prices were up by 0.34% for the month, increasing the annual home price growth rate to 3.9%

• Over those 16 months, annual home price growth had fallen from a peak of 6.75% in February 2018 to 3.7% as of June

• It’s important to note that the slowdown didn’t equate to falling home prices at the national level; in fact, July marked 87 consecutive months of annual home price growth
There is much more in the mortgage monitor.