by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2019 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, August 31, 2019
The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, August auto sales, and the July trade deficit.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion on Friday.
For data nerds, the BLS will release their update Labor Force Projections on Wednesday.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 51.5, up from 51.2 in July.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The PMI was at 51.2% in July, the employment index was at 51.7%, and the new orders index was at 50.8%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $55.2 billion in July unchanged from $55.2 billion in June.
During the Day: The BLS is scheduled to release Labor Force projections through 2028.
All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.9 million SAAR in August, up from 16.8 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 156,000 added in July.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 215 thousand the previous week.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for index to increase to 54.0 from 53.7 in July.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 158,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, down from the 164,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In July the year-over-year change was 2.246 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
12:30 PM: Discussion with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, Discussion with Thomas J. Jordan, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland