Friday, August 30, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 8/30/2019 11:17:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

3Q GDP tracking rose 0.2pp to 2.1% qoq saar [Aug 29 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimates by two tenths to +2.2% (qoq ar). [Aug 29 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 30 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on August 30, down from 2.3 percent on August 26. [Aug 30 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.