Friday, August 23, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2019 11:46:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 2.1% qoq saar for 3Q. 2Q GDP growth is likely to be revised modestly lower in the second release to 1.8% from the advance estimate of 2.1%. [Aug 23 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 23 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. [Aug 16 estimate] (next update on Aug 26th)
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.